Technology’s Real Benefits- NOT so much in cancer research

The first example is cancer research. … The genomic approach helps establish the right treatments today, and will likely lead to new and better drugs in the next few years. ….” this is something that will be useful 200 years from now. This is a landmark that will stand the test of time.”

via Technology’s Real Benefits (Hint: They’re Not Economic).

Sorry, Andy, we have been getting hype about contributions of computers to biotech, and biotech to cancer, for 20+ years.  It’s past time to be highly skeptical that medical breakthroughs are “around the corner… just give us another $X billion for research…” Although the research results have been fascinating, the practical impacts have been modest. I think one reason is that the Big Pharma/Big Academia model of R&D is  inefficient and ineffective. Everyone hoards their data, and pursues their own stove pipe. There’s little collaboration or interchange among computer modelers, in-vitro, animal models, epidemiologists, etc. This is not something that better technology can solve – it’s a problem with business incentives and the academic promotion system.

Case in point: According to a friend, there have been no Randomized Clinical Trials on the relationship between crystalline salt and kidney disease. Everyone assumes there is a relationship, but what is the exact causal link? What’s the magnitude? What are the mediators of the effect (e.g. different diets, different climates). And what effects do intervention at different points (diet versus medications) have?  This is not cancer research, but same principles hold.

Other benefits of technology: sure. Cultural and scientific and business. Mapping Inca ruins: awesome. Effect of Facebook on daily lives: large,and not captured in GDP statistics. So your basic thesis is good; just don’t use medical promises as cases in point!

Screening tests and invasive biopsies « Punk Rock Operations Research

screening tests and invasive medical procedures « Punk Rock Operations Research.

A nice blog post by Laura McLay on a few of the paradoxes of cancer screening, and the human reactions to it. Everyone should read this weekend’s NYT article on breast cancer screening, by Peggy Orenstein. Title is Our Feel-Good War on Breast Cancer.  One of my reactions to Peggy Orenstein being the author: age really does bring wisdom!

My extended family went through a scare caused by over-testing a few years ago. Nobody was at fault, but different family members have very different responses to uncertainty.

Here is the abstract to the article Laura mentions on prostate screening.

Debate regarding the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening test centers around test reliability and whether screening reduces mortality.1– 3 We consider yet another potential downside to the widespread use of unreliable screening tests: the downstream effect of receiving inconclusive or ambiguous results. When receiving information from screening tests, we usually want to know whether the result is a “yes” or a “no.” Receiving an inconclusive result amounts to a “don’t know”; this situation should have a level of uncertainty regarding the diagnosis similar to that of not conducting the test at all. Yet, we propose that the psychological uncertainty experienced after an inconclusive test result can lead to investigation momentum: additional, and potentially excessive, diagnostic testing. In contrast, not conducting the unreliable test would result in no further action. To investigate this, we evaluated whether receiving an inconclusive result from an unreliable test (the PSA screening), compared with undergoing no test, motivated more individuals to undertake an additional, more invasive and costly, test (a prostate biopsy).

 

Invented by a data scientist: the first anti-scam – AnalyticBridge

Invented by a data scientist: the first anti-scam – AnalyticBridge.

An interesting concept: create a lottery which is really a disguised form of savings. That’s not quite what this proposal does, but it could be modified very easily.

From what I read, accumulating savings is a big problem for many poor people. Some nonetheless play the lottery. Create a lottery-squared, which takes in tickets from participants, accumulates most of it in an account for the payer, and puts a fraction in a true lottery. Then the ticket-buyer can “win” a small amount according to some rule. The rule  may be hidden from them, as in the original proposal, or could be partially under their control.

Lots of legal problems with this, to say the least. The middleman is acting like a bank, with all the issues that brings. The record-keeping and security could be a problem. And so forth. This is more of a problem in some countries than others.

By the way, this is similar to what “Christmas club accounts” in banks did in the 1950s, apparently. Customers would put $5 into the account each week, and get it all back in December.

Are You Really Drowning in Data?

This blog challenges the “drowning in big data” cliche. He explains that most organizations don’t have useful access to most of their raw data – it sits somewhere in the IT department, but it’s not accessible, it has quality problems, and so forth.

But I think that is precisely where the “drowning” comes in. The psychological weight of all that unused data presses down and causes a sensation of “drowning.” The part of the data that is actually indexed, described, readily accessible and so forth is the data that we surf instead of drown under.

This applies on a personal level as well…. I drown under the weight of my “to read” pile; I surf the few things I actually sit and study.

Are You Really Drowning in Data? Challenging the Big Data Assumption – FICO Labs Blog.

A publisher who only supports Internet Explorer!

I encouraged my TOM students to check out the Investext database for their term projects. Imagine my surprise to learn that Thomson, the publisher, thinks that the world is Windows only. Here is a note from the UCSD librarian.

Hi Roger. On the new Thomson One interface/platform, Investext really only works with IE.
Other browsers may now load at all, or have functionality/displays that are hobbled.

P.S. Here is what MIT library says: “Microsoft Internet Explorer is required. Thomson One will not work with other browsers such as Firefox, Chrome, and Safari.”

We have to “love” the academic publishing industry. Still trying to saddle everything they provide with DRM. UC San Diego and the whole UC system are  moving toward an open publishing approach – I expect most of my colleagues will adopt it, although only slowly.

Will MOOCs revolutionize education? History says the odds are against it.

MOOCs – Massively Open Online Courses – are well up in the hype cycle right now. Coursera, Udacity, and other companies are trying to establish themselves as leaders in this “emerging market,” following the 1999 model of build the traffic first, then figure out how to monetize it. (That model worked fine for Google and Facebook, and failed for many others – but that’s a separate topic.) The expansive vision is that instead of showing up in classrooms to listen to a professor, students will “engage in online learning” including lectures and discussions over the Net. If they are in conventional colleges, they will still come to class, but it will be to discuss and go beyond the lectures they received the night before.

A recent post on another blog about the Open TV course movement reminded me that TV was once receiving similar game-changing forecasts. I’m sure it accomplished a little, but it never got much traction and came nowhere close to its hype. The post was on Punk Rock OR, and it gives some history that I didn’t know, about education by TV.

The history of education in American is littered with 1) fads of all kinds, and specifically 2) claims that XYZ new communication technology would revolutionize higher education. Examples include radio, mail-order courses, TV, movies, Control Data’s instruction system that used a time-shared computer, the Internet in general, the World Wide Web (that one is partly accurate). Many of these have had some value, but none of them has changed the basic paradigm of “asses in classrooms,” or if they have, they did not reach even a 1% market share. Notice that all of these have the same principle: achieve economies of scale, by using the faculty member far beyond where his or her physical voice can carry.

Yes, technology has helped education, and sometimes has even revolutionized it. Two old examples are the printing press, and the pencil. (Does anyone know a source for the explanation, by a school board, of why paper and pencils were unnecessary expenses, given that a chalkboard was perfectly adequate for teaching writing? I read about this many years ago.)

 But true revolutions in education are very rare. An example of a computer-revolution-that-hasn’t-happened: discussion conferences where discussions continue after class. These are technically straightforward, and the infrastructure exists and is used (e.g. Blackboard and others). So far, I have seen approximately zero examples of massive changes created by such discussions, for all their promise.

So I take the lack of impact from MOTVCs as yet another bad sign for MOOCs. Many of these forecast revolutions in higher ed, including TV and courses-by-mail, have foundered because there is something superior about actually showing up in a classroom, surrounded by other people talking about the same subject. We don’t really know why it’s superior – but so far, the replacements have not kept students coming back. Is there much reason to think “this time it’s different?”

Tieing this to technological knowledge and art/science, the main topics of this blog, good teaching apparently contains elements that are still very much art. Perhaps it’s as simple as the observation that humans, as social animals, use our brains differently when we are in groups.