Covid

Latest European Covid: getting it back under control?

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This is a follow-up to my discussion of high Covid incidence (cases per population) in Europe. As of Nov. 23, France has turned things around. Other European countries are at least not getting worse. The US is still growing rapidly. But new cases are still high in all of these countries, and they have a long way to go to return to the low rates of the Summer. China, Korea, and Taiwan are still invisibly low by comparison.

Deaths increased in October/November less dramatically than cases, reflecting large improvements in treatment of serious Covid. Deaths lag cases by approximately 2 weeks, which may explain why France’s recent turnaround in infection rates does not show up yet.

The last figure is supposed to show today’s data from Our World In Data, but WordPress seems to have trouble rendering it.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=IND~USA~GBR~CAN~DEU~FRA&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_cases&pickerSort=desc
Latest Covid numbers from selected advanced countries

Other countries now have even more Covid-19

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For much of the Covid-19 pandemic, the USA was the worst off by many measures. Total number of cases, number of deaths, incidence rate (new cases per capita) — we were the highest large country on all of them.

That is no longer true, to my surprise. Much of Europe is now as badly off as we are. The relevant comparison is per capita, in order to adjust for country size. I selected 4 large European countries: Italy, France, UK, and Germany. Three are now in the same range of misery, although Germany has been consistently a bit better. This figure shows daily incidence. (New cases per day.)

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