Toyota learns the tyranny of software complexity

March 2, 2010

A good column about Toyota’s acceleration mess. The author is a former electrical engineer at Ford, and discusses the complexity of the software that runs modern cars. He compares this problem with previous major recalls by other vendors. The comments to the post are good, too. Here’s an excerpt:

The system level error that Toyota made is not letting a brake signal override a throttle signal. I designed speed control systems at Ford, and everything was dependent on having a tap on the brake cancel any speed control function. A throttle-by-wire car like Toyota makes is almost free to add speed control, you just have to have a button to tell the ECU (engine control module) to hold speed and a brake signal,

Read the rest of this entry »


ANY product can be improved

February 21, 2010

For my upcoming product development class. A team, following the methods taught in the course, can improve the design of ANYTHING. A strong claim, admittedly.

Building a Better  Mailbox

It is often said that there are no new ideas, but Ms. Troyer and Mr. Farentinos turned that cliché inside out. By correctly anticipating how the high-tech future would change the way we shop, they updated one of the most low-tech items around: the repository of snail mail, the trusty mailbox. Along the way, they responded to a growing concern — identity theft — that established mailbox suppliers had failed to address.

via Prototype – Architectural Mailboxes – A Tale of Determination – NYTimes.com.

The course is based on the textbook by Ulrich and Eppinger:  http://www.ulrich-eppinger.net/


Latest development in the battle over vaccinations

February 4, 2010

The Lancet retracts paper linking MMR vaccines and autism By Matt Ford | Last updated February 3, 2010 9:27 AM

This week, after receiving the conclusions of a multiyear ethics investigation of UK doctor Andrew Wakefield performed by the General Medical Counsel GMC, the editors of British medical journal The Lancet formally retracted a study which purported to find a link between the childhood MMR vaccine, gastrointestinal disease, and autism. It was published in 1998 and has been a source of controversy ever since.

via The Lancet retracts paper linking MMR vaccines and autism.

This article is tale of greed and incompetence.  But the harm it did lives on. Here’s a site that claims to present “all sides,” but clearly thinks Wakefield is a hero. There are many like it – conspiracy theories flourish better than scientific analysis on the web. (More fun  and much easier to write, after all.)  For a good article on these hysterias, see an article by Amy Wallace in Wired.  As best I can tell, some  parents cannot handle the concepts of bad luck or Acts of God. If their child gets sick, someone is responsible! And it’s part of a widespread plot!

A second problem, much more widespread than the vaccine phobias, is that people have trouble dealing with small probabilities. (This observation goes back at least to research by Kahneman and Tversky on how humans have systematic cognitive biases.) So you can find nonsensical statements like “If screening for disease X [breast cancer screening under age 50 is the current example] saves even a single life, than not doing it is manslaughter.” What’s the problem? Screening itself causes difficulties, such as unnecessary biopsies. Not to mention that more lives might be saved by spending the same amount of money on something else. So deciding whether/when to get screened is a balancing act; it’s not all one way or the other.

One interesting bit of sociology (which to me is further proof that these health-scare controversies almost never have factual basis): most countries have phobias about vaccines and medicines, but the specific phobia varies by country. For example, the smallpox-eradication effort fell apart at the last moment when smallpox vaccine was rumored to cause infertility. (I’m looking for more specifics on the nation-specific fears of vaccines – I’ve forgotten where I came across it.)

Yet,  there are a LOT of problems with modern medicine, and with drugs in particular. But in an environment where any half-baked theory gets taken seriously, it’s very hard to separate the fear-mongering from the real problems.


The Lancet retracts paper linking MMR vaccines and autism

February 4, 2010

The Lancet retracts paper linking MMR vaccines and autism By Matt Ford | Last updated February 3, 2010 9:27 AM

This week, after receiving the conclusions of a multiyear ethics investigation of UK doctor Andrew Wakefield performed by the General Medical Counsel GMC, the editors of British medical journal The Lancet formally retracted a study which purported to find a link between the childhood MMR vaccine, gastrointestinal disease, and autism. It was published in 1998 and has been a source of controversy ever since.

via The Lancet retracts paper linking MMR vaccines and autism.

This article is tale of greed and incompetence.  But the harm it did lives on. Here’s a site that claims to present “all sides,” but clearly thinks Wakefield is a hero. There are many like it – conspiracy theories flourish better than scientific analysis on the web. (More fun  and much easier to write, after all.)  For a good article on these hysterias, see an article by Amy Wallace in Wired.  As best I can tell, some  parents cannot handle the concepts of bad luck or Acts of God. If their child gets sick, someone is responsible! And it’s part of a widespread plot!

A second problem, much more widespread than the vaccine phobias, is that people have trouble dealing with small probabilities. (This observation goes back at least to research by Kahneman and Tversky on how humans have systematic cognitive biases.) So you can find nonsensical statements like “If screening for disease X [breast cancer screening under age 50 is the current example] saves even a single life, than not doing it is manslaughter.” What’s the problem? Screening itself causes difficulties, such as unnecessary biopsies. Not to mention that more lives might be saved by spending the same amount of money on something else. So deciding whether/when to get screened is a balancing act; it’s not all one way or the other.

One interesting bit of sociology (which to me is further proof that these health-scare controversies almost never have factual basis): most countries have phobias about vaccines and medicines, but the specific phobia varies by country. For example, the smallpox-eradication effort fell apart at the last moment when smallpox vaccine was rumored to cause infertility. (I’m looking for more specifics on the nation-specific fears of vaccines – I’ve forgotten where I came across it.)

Yet,  there are a LOT of problems with modern medicine, and with drugs in particular. But in an environment where any half-baked theory gets taken seriously, it’s very hard to separate the fear-mongering from the real problems.


Small is Beautiful for global health tech? A good theme for project proposals

January 21, 2010

(This presentation discusses the “car-parts neonatal incubator” in more detail, which  the NY Times profiled recently.  This is an example of appropriate technology. It would make a good takeoff point for projects in several of my courses.)

Many multinational companies manufacturing medical devices for developing countries focus their efforts on high-end products too expensive to be used in most healthcare settings. Unable to afford their own equipment, healthcare providers in areas with few resources often receive donated equipment from international organizations. Unfortunately, while this donated equipment is usually state-of-the-art, it often ends up falling into disrepair and eventually disuse. Donors with the best of intentions fall into the trap of donating equipment that the recipient cannot afford to maintain. Just as most of us would like to own a Ferrari but would be unable to pay for its upkeep, most clinics in resource-poor areas cannot afford to maintain expensive devices, such as incubators, designed for use in developed countries.

via CIMIT Forum: Medical Devices in Global Health: Idea to Implementation, Successes and Challenges.


From Art to Science: what it means

December 13, 2009

Most of my research right now is about the evolution of technologies. They go from crafts, requiring skilled experts, to “engineering science,” i.e. mostly automated and very precise. For example, firearms manufacturing took 200 years to undergo this shift. Flying took about 100 years to go from the Wright Brothers, to autonomous aircraft (not just unmanned, but self-directed). How does this happen? Is it a good thing?

Here is a talk I gave on this topic. (Caution: 5 MB PDF file) The subtitle is Why old tasks get easier, but everything gets more complex.

Bohn knowledge evolution 2007

I’m working on a book on this subject, which does side-by-side comparisons of:

  • Flying
  • Medical care – several kinds
  • Firearms manufacturing (from Napoleon to 1980)
  • Semiconductor manufacturing

Each of them has undergone major transformations, with similar patterns.


Intel-AMD case

December 1, 2009

The lawsuit between Intel and AMD was settled a few weeks ago, five years after it was first filed by AMD. This was a private civil lawsuit; various government investigations are still going. According to reports, Intel agreed to pay $1,250,000,000, and to extend various license agreements with AMD. ($1.25 billion)

I was an expert witness on the case, which was an interesting experience to say the least. As an academic, I wish there were a way to use the data from civil lawsuits  cases for academic research. Of course, the confidential data itself has to be kept secret, but in principle it should often be possible to find ways to provide high-level analysis without revealing anything private.  As far as I know, though, this is never done. Certainly the standard agreements for using the data don’t allow it, and in practice it would probably take an agreement by both sides. The companies don’t seem to have much incentive to allow this. (I’m not speaking of AMD or Intel  or anything about this case in particular.)

There’s one  situation where some of the data does come out, namely if the case actually goes to trial. An example was the US vs Microsoft case in the late 1990s. But this is very rare – most cases settle before trial, and even when they don’t I gather that agreements to seal the data are standard.


The Economist praises a dangerous and obsolete management concept

September 14, 2009

The Economist just published a short article in praise of the experience curve. Even the first sentence is wrong . Here’s their lead-in.

The more experience a firm has in producing a particular product, the lower its costs

The experience curve is an idea developed by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in the mid-1960s.

Actually, no. The experience curve, known as the learning curve, goes back to the aircraft industry before World War II. (An excellent review of the history and application to management up to 1980 is J.M. Dutton, A. Thomas, J.E. Butler, “The history of progress functions as a managerial technology,” Business History Review 58 (2) (1984). )

Here’s my comment on the Economist article:

It’s sad to see such an obsolete and downright dangerous theory get this favorable write-up. BCG (and later Bain) ruined numerous businesses by persuading them to blindly follow “the experience curve.”

The danger in the Experience Curve concept is that it claims that improvement is _inevitable_ and _ the same for everyone in an industry_. Neither of these is remotely correct. If it were correct, the biggest firm would be able to reduce its costs faster than everyone else, and would become unassailable. This was exactly the theory behind BCG’s matrix, and it’s WRONG. General Motors was bigger than Toyota until 2008, but Toyota had lower costs, and faster declining costs, since at least 1965 or 1970. For decades GM claimed this was due to lower labor costs, but that was refuted in the book The Machine That Changed the World, which showed that Toyota (and others) were much more efficient than US auto makers per labor hour.

It’s certainly true that, properly managed, experience can facilitate improvement. But there’s been 25 years of research now showing that improvement requires deliberate effort, and that the improvement process takes careful management. Toyota, through JIT and “The Toyota Production Process,” essentially invented a system for making more rapid improvement – hence it surpassed GM and everyone else, while a fraction of their size. The semiconductor industry had its own epiphany about the folly of the experience curve, when a major research project run out of Berkeley surveyed a variety of fabs and found vastly different performance that had little  to do with scale or cumulative experience.

Even BCG no longer claims the experience curve is valid, as far as I know. (I’d be happy to hear from others who have experienced BCG’s views in the last 5 years.)

I could go on and on (and I did, in stuff I wrote 20 years ago on this topic)!  We need to drive a stake through the heart of this idea. It’s not that it’s totally and utterly wrong, because the learning curve  has some ex post validity. But it has little predictive power, and even less as a normative theory of how to manage learning!


Immigration and high-tech startups: not correlated, after all?

July 21, 2009

Some colleagues have just published a new analysis of high-tech entrepreneurs, and the results are  surprising. There has been a lot of talk  lately that high tech firms are disproportionally founded by immigrants.  But according to my interpretation of this new, and more carefully done, study, that’s  not true.  Here’s my summary of their results:

Only about 3 percent  of the founders of high-impact, high-tech companies are foreigners (about 60 out of 2034).   97 percent are US citizens, and specifically 87 percent are US-born, while 10 percent are naturalized US citizens.    Furthermore, most foreign-born founders lived in the US for decades.  These founders are statistically very similar to the average US population in terms of birth and immigration status.

What’s the evidence? The study is by David M. Hart, Zoltan J. Acs, and Spencer L. Tracy, Jr.High-tech Immigrant Entrepreneurship in the United States A summary of their report is at http://www.sba.gov/advo/research/rs349.pdf

Here’s the odd part: the authors draw a rather different conclusion from their data than I do. Specifically their lead is “The central finding of the study is that about 16% of the nationally representative sample of high-impact, high-tech businesses that we surveyed count at least one foreign-born person among their founding team.” And indeed, their data does say this. But they failed to make a comparison to the US population in general. And classifying as “immigrant founded” a firm with any foreign-born founders is inherently biasing the results toward a higher number. They report that “of the 205 Immigrant Founded Companies in the sample, more than half [ie. at least 8% of the firms in the sample] were founded only by foreign-born entrepreneurs,” which seems to me more informative than the 16% number.

For what it’s worth, I’m very sympathetic to the view that immigrants have a positive effect on technology and entrepreneurship. My nationalistic perspective is that we (the US) should educate in our universities the smartest kids we can get our hands on worldwide , and then keep them in the US.  We’ve always been a nation of immigrants, and there is no reason to change. Of course, there are many nuances and ramifications of this debate.

Here’s my comparison data on the general US population, based on latest-available information from US Census.  In 2003  about  11.7 percent of the population was foreign-born.    (http://www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/p20-551.pdf)  Of these, only about 40 percent are naturalized US citizens (http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/c2kbr-34.pdf). But corrected for the same average age (or residence time in the US), it looks like very roughly 70 percent of immigrants are  naturalized.  And, if we adjusted for region of residence, since startups and immigrants both disproportionally reside in some regions, the fraction of immigrants in their sample would probably be even lower than the general population in the same region.

On the other hand, it might be more relevant to look at the status of company founders in the year of founding, rather than today. Presumably fewer of them were US citizens at the time (although the percentage foreign born would be the same). But a similar correction would apply to the immigrant population of the US as a whole, so it’s still not clear that the two would differ meaningfully.

Finally, this research looks well-done to me. It’s only their spin on the executive summary  that I disagree with. They seem to have done a much more careful job than previous analysis on this topic, and if you read their report carefully they don’t overstate their results.

[A good comment on this research is at http://www.usnews.com/blogs/capital-commerce/2009/07/16/immigrants-a-driving-force-behind-innovative-firms.html#3323010 . The commenter has delved into the report and extracted some numbers I didn't notice, that support the view that this research is NOT pro-immigration, at least not directly.]